Current Blocksize, by graphs.

I used bitcoin-iterate and gnumeric to render the current bitcoin blocksizes, and here are the results.

My First Graph: A Moment of Panic

This is block sizes up to yesterday; I’ve asked gnumeric to derive an exponential trend line from the data (in black; the red one is linear)

Woah! We hit 1M blocks in a month! PAAAANIC!

That trend line hits 1000000 at block 363845.5, which we’d expect in about 32 days time!  This is what is freaking out so many denizens of the Bitcoin Subreddit. I also just saw a similar inaccurate [correction: misleading] graph reshared by Mike Hearn on G+ :(

But Wait A Minute

That trend line says we’re on 800k blocks today, and we’re clearly not.  Let’s add a 6 hour moving average:

Oh, we’re only halfway there….

In fact, if we cluster into 36 blocks (ie. 6 hours worth), we can see how misleading the terrible exponential fit is:

What! We’re already over 1M blocks?? Maths, you lied to me!

Clearer Graphs: 1 week Moving Average

Actual Weekly Running Average Blocksize

So, not time to panic just yet, though we’re clearly growing, and in unpredictable bursts.